One giant leap for mankind? A cost-utility analysis of abolishing the law of gravity

Methods

We sought to estimate the number of quality-adjusted life-years that would be saved if the Neo Rhino Party succeeds in repealing the law of gravity. We also sought to analyze the cost-effectiveness of adapting Volfson's antigravity device for use on earth as a means to diminish the burden of disease attributable to gravity. Volfson's invention is a method for generating a pressure anomaly of an inflationary vacuum state using the following steps (some occurring simultaneously): providing a space vehicle comprising a hollow superconductive shield, an inner shield, a support structure, upper and lower means for generating an electromagnetic field, electric motors, a power source, life-support equipment, a flux modulation controller and a crew; generating electrical energy in the power source; and converting this electrical energy into an electromagnetic field, thus creating an area of relatively lower vacuum pressure density (Figure 1).

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Figure 1: Illustration of Boris Volfson's antigravity device (reproduced with permission).1

The model

A Markov model is a useful way to prove cost-effectiveness. This model is infinitely flexible and offers many opportunities to test assumptions, which enables us to generate data and pick those that support our case most effectively. We opted to use a hidden Markov model — a statistical model in which the system is assumed to be a Markov process with unknown parameters — to perform our cost-utility analysis. The challenge was to determine the hidden parameters from the observable parameters. In a regular Markov model, the state is directly visible to the observer, therefore the state transition probabilities are the only parameters. In a hidden Markov model the state is not directly visible, but variables influenced by the state are visible (Figure 2).

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Figure 2: The Hidden Markov Model.

Results

The cost of adapting the antigravity device to potentially save 2 025 036 quality-adjusted life-years would be $Can666 million, resulting in a cost of $Can328 per quality-adjusted life-year saved (Table 1). Mechanical testing using anthropomorphic test dummies, animals, cadavers and live human (astronauts) test subjects in microgravity resulted in about 1 million quality-adjusted life-years saved.

Creating a microgravity environment each day between the hours of 7 am and 3 am the next day would save 2 025 036 quality-adjusted life-years according (only) to our estimate (Table 2). Microgravity would resolve the obesity crisis and the health care costs associated with obesity. For example, considering that weight equals mass times gravitational acceleration (w = m × Ga), a man weighing 100 kg and measuring 175 cm in height would see his body mass index reduced from 32.7 kg/m² to 16.3 kg/m² in a microgravity environment (0.5 G).

Interpretation

Our study demonstrates that microgravity is the solution to the health care crisis in Canada. To virtually guarantee that our intervention presents an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, we followed 3 simple rules, which conveniently allowed us to add and subtract facts to make our case stronger:2

• when there is little empirical research evidence of good quality, generate your own estimates;

• use as much technical jargon as possible; and

• do not worry readers with the intricacies of our model and just report the bottom line.

This study presents tons of limitations. A large volume of data exists to document the multiple detrimental physiologic effects of microgravity exposure on human physiology.3^–6 Organ systems, including the cardiovascular, neurohumoural, immune, hematopoietic and musculoskeletal systems, may be particularly affected. However, our research suggests that these physiologic effects can be mitigated by building the antigravity device with an intensity regulator to permit the presence of gravity between 3 am and 7 am each day.

In addition, we only looked at the positive side of microgravity. We did not consider the medical problems (e.g. increased constipation and gastroesophagal reflux) or technical problems (e.g., wigs, intravenous fluids and toilets) related to the absence of gravity.

Furthermore, although we expect that, with a resolution from the United Nations, the United States, Russia, North Korea and the Islamic Republic of Iran would promptly, and with a great sense of altruism, work together for the well-being of humankind by providing the nuclear power to generate the energy supply required for the antigravity device, the cooperation of these countries is only hypothetical.

Finally, in our model, we tried to take into account the probability of human–airplane crashes that would result from “giant leaps” owing to microgravity. We considered that human–airplane collision probability depends on the relative position-error covariance matrix in the encounter region, and that the probability of a jumping human hitting an aircraft depends on the combined position-error covariance and head-positioning-error covariance. The potential number of human–airplane crashes could limit the benefit of a microgravity intervention; however, a new law to regulate minimal flight altitude would diminish the impact of this inconvenience.

In conclusion, we proved that technological, statistical and medical jargon can convince intelligent people to read a manuscript. The proof? You're reading it!