We conducted a retrospective cohort study to estimate the incidence of major blood-borne agents among Italian blood donors and calculated the risk of infection among blood recipients using the 'incidence/window period model'. The study was conducted among 46 180 blood donors enrolled in six blood centres between 1994 and 1999. During follow-up, seven new infections were confirmed: three donors seroconverted for anti-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); two for anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV); and two showed hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) reactivity; no cases of syphilis were observed. The incidence rates per 100 000 person/years were: 4.06 (95% CI: 0.82-11.85) for HIV; 2.41 (95% CI: 0.29-8.70) for HCV; and 2.70 (95% CI: 0.32-9.77) for HBsAg; the incidence for total hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection was 9.77 per 100 000 person/years (95% CI: 1.16-35.36). The estimated risk of an infectious blood unit not being detected was: 2.45 (95% CI: 0.13-12.33) per 1 million units for HIV; 4.35 (95% CI: 0.30-22.39) for HCV; and 15.78 (95% CI: 1.16-84.23) for HBV. Overall, an estimated 22.58 per 1 million units are infected. In Italy, the risk of transfusion-transmitted infections is low and is similar to that in other western countries. The introduction of new more sensitive screening tests could reduce the residual risk of transfusion-transmitted infection by 40-80%.