ArticlesOccurrence of death and stroke in patients in 47 countries 1 year after presenting with atrial fibrillation: a cohort study
Introduction
Atrial fibrillation is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide.1, 2, 3, 4 However, most understanding of atrial fibrillation is based on findings from clinical trials and observational studies done in North America and western Europe, which exclude patients with secondary atrial fibrillation.3, 4, 5, 6, 7 Both of these factors might lead to an underestimation of the morbidity and mortality associated with atrial fibrillation. Over the past 20 years, findings from clinical trials have suggested that antithrombotic drugs substantially and significantly reduce stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation,5, 6, 8, 9 but comparatively less attention has been paid to other complications. Although evidence is emerging that guideline-based application10, 11, 12 of antithrombotic therapy and blood pressure management is improving outcomes for patients in high-income countries,13 no concurrent data are available about the outcomes of patients with atrial fibrillation in low-income or middle-income countries.
Several reports have described the characteristics of patients with atrial fibrillation in countries outside western Europe and North America.14, 15, 16 These data have highlighted important differences in the clinical characteristics and treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation in these regions, compared with patients in Western Europe and North America. However; there are no data about whether outcomes for patients with atrial fibrillation vary between countries and if so, the reasons for such variations. To reduce mortality and morbidity from atrial fibrillation worldwide, the rate of a range of adverse outcomes in addition to strokes should be documented among a broad cohort of patients in different regions of the world and the reasons for any variations understood.
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Study design and participants
The methods of this study have previously been described.17 We did a cohort study using a prospective registry of patients at 164 sites in 47 countries, representing all inhabited continents (appendix). The registry enrolled patients who presented to an emergency department with atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, identified by the treating physicians as the primary reason for their visit or as a secondary diagnosis. Although consecutive patients were not enrolled, centres were strongly
Results
Between Dec 24, 2007, and Oct 21, 2011, we enrolled 15 400 individuals to the registry (table 1). Of these, 15 361 (99·7%) completed follow-up. The number of patients with follow-up was slightly lower in the Middle East (864 [97%] of 887), but was nearly 100% complete in all other regions. Follow-up was completed in April, 2012.
604 (4%) of 15 361 patients had a stroke by 1 year after their emergency-room visit with atrial fibrillation. Half the number of patients with a primary diagnosis of
Discussion
This is the first large atrial fibrillation cohort study to prospectively include patients in all regions of the world with both primary and secondary atrial fibrillation. We included a large number of patients from low-income and middle-income countries. In an unselected emergency department setting, where atrial fibrillation represents 0·5%–1·0% of all visits and is often an acute presentation,23, 24 the findings from our study showed that after 1 year around 4% of these patients have had a
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