Table 1:

Baseline characteristics of the derivation and validation cohorts

CharacteristicNo. (%) of patients in the derivation cohort*
n = 1 160 429
No. (%) of patients in the validation cohort*
n = 195 951
No. (%) of patients in the total cohort*
n = 1 356 380
Age, yr; mean ± SD79.6 ± 10.580.6 ± 10.479.7 ± 10.5
Sex
 Female759 069 (65.4)122 913 (62.7)881 982 (65.0)
 Male401 360 (34.6)73 038 (37.3)474 398 (35.0)
Highest level of education completed
 Grade 11 or lower411 100 (35.4)56 275 (28.7)467 375 (34.5)
 High school190 153 (16.4)28 617 (14.6)218 770 (16.1)
 Technical or trade school71 070 (6.1)10 208 (5.2)81 278 (6.0)
 Some college or university173 885 (15.0)30 130 (15.4)204 015 (15.0)
 Unknown314 221 (27.1)70 721 (36.1)384 942 (28.4)
Diseases
 Stroke224 251 (19.3)36 915 (18.8)261 166 (19.3)
 Congestive heart failure158 167 (13.6)27 323 (13.9)185 490 (13.7)
 Coronary artery disease311 387 (26.8)51 775 (26.4)363 162 (26.8)
 Hypertension700 398 (60.4)124 052 (63.3)824 450 (60.8)
 Alzheimer disease or other dementias259 128 (22.3)59 182 (30.2)318 310 (23.5)
 Multiple sclerosis14 527 (1.3)2165 (1.1)16 692 (1.2)
 Parkinsonism54 632 (4.7)10 592 (5.4)65 224 (4.8)
 Cancer (in the past 5 yr, excluding skin cancer)169 592 (14.6)26 710 (13.6)196 302 (14.5)
 Emphysema, COPD or asthma210 868 (18.2)37 406 (19.1)248 274 (18.3)
 Renal failure85 784 (7.4)16 831 (8.6)102 615 (7.6)
IADL Difficulty scale
 0 = No difficulty in performing ordinary housework, meal preparation or phone use40 376 (3.5)3222 (1.6)43 598 (3.2)
 176 628 (6.6)5611 (2.9)82 239 (6.1)
 2133 787 (11.5)14 365 (7.3)148 152 (10.9)
 317 557 (1.5)2794 (1.4)20 351 (1.5)
 4240 055 (20.7)32 954 (16.8)273 009 (20.1)
 5450 753 (38.8)87 753 (44.8)538 506 (39.7)
 6 = Great difficulty in performing ordinary housework, meal preparation or phone use201 273 (17.3)49 252 (25.1)250 525 (18.5)
ADL Self-performance Hierarchy scale
 0 = Independent in maintaining personal hygiene, toilet use, locomotion and eating663 190 (57.2)84 980 (43.4)748 170 (55.2)
 1127 685 (11.0)25 871 (13.2)153 556 (11.3)
 2172 038 (14.8)39 253 (20.0)211 291 (15.6)
 381 754 (7.0)19 686 (10.0)101 440 (7.5)
 460 026 (5.2)13 715 (7.0)73 741 (5.4)
 541 638 (3.6)9385 (4.8)51 023 (3.8)
 6 = Total dependence in maintaining personal hygiene, toilet use, locomotion and eating14 098 (1.2)3061 (1.6)17 159 (1.3)
Worsening ADL
 Yes512 843 (44.2)109 837 (56.1)622 680 (45.9)
 No647 586 (55.8)86 114 (43.9)733 700 (54.1)
Cognitive skills for daily decision-making
 Worsening decision-making capacity204 918 (17.7)50 917 (26.0)255 835 (18.9)
Signs and symptoms of health instability
 Vomiting in at least 2 of the last 3 d15 783 (1.4)2826 (1.4)18 609 (1.4)
 Edema in the last 3 d305 303 (26.3)62 326 (31.8)367 629 (27.1)
 Shortness of breath in the last 3 days297 853 (25.7)60 384 (30.8)358 237 (26.4)
 Weight loss of > 5% in the last 30 d or > 10% in the last 6 mo88 373 (7.6)17 630 (9.0)106 003 (7.8)
 Noticeable decrease in food or fluid consumption compared with normal35 632 (3.1)8749 (4.5)44 381 (3.3)
 Insufficient intake of fluids over the last 3 d16 483 (1.4)3865 (2.0)20 348 (1.5)
Prognosis of less than 6 mo to live
 Yes14 030 (1.2)3072 (1.6)17 102 (1.3)
 No1 146 399 (98.8)192 879 (98.4)1 339 278 (98.7)
Receipt of life-sustaining treatments or therapies
 Chemotherapy18 626 (1.6)2189 (1.1)20 815 (1.5)
 Dialysis16 907 (1.5)2940 (1.5)19 847 (1.5)
 Ventilator for assistive breathing or oxygen therapy105 361 (9.1)19 739 (10.1)125 100 (9.2)
No. of inpatient admissions over the past 90 d
 0799 748 (68.9)125 997 (64.3)925 745 (68.3)
 1302 152 (26.0)57 735 (29.5)359 887 (26.5)
 245 660 (3.9)9449 (4.8)55 109 (4.1)
 3 or more12 869 (1.1)2770 (1.4)15 639 (1.2)
No. of emergency department visits over past 90 d
 0942 148 (81.2)153 825 (78.5)1 095 973 (80.8)
 1162 917 (14.0)30 329 (15.5)193 246 (14.2)
 236 657 (3.2)7604 (3.9)44 261 (3.3)
 3 or more18 707 (1.6)4193 (2.1)22 900 (1.7)
Reason for assessment
 Initial assessment434 649 (37.5)77 171 (39.4)511 820 (37.7)
 Follow-up assessment204 139 (17.6)36 203 (18.5)240 342 (17.7)
 Routine assessment at a fixed interval441 476 (38.0)65 608 (33.5)507 084 (37.4)
 After discharge from hospital58 738 (5.1)11 770 (6.0)70 508 (5.2)
 Assessment owing to a change in health status21 427 (1.8)5199 (2.7)26 626 (2.0)
Year of assessment
 2007189 655 (16.3)0 (0.0)189 655 (14.0)
 2008190 575 (16.4)0 (0.0)190 575 (14.1)
 2009190 226 (16.4)0 (0.0)190 226 (14.0)
 2010190 673 (16.4)0 (0.0)190 673 (14.1)
 2011198 233 (17.1)0 (0.0)198 233 (14.6)
 2012201 067 (17.3)0 (0.0)201 067 (14.8)
 20130 (0.0)195 951 (100.0)195 951 (14.4)
  • Note: ADL = activities of daily living, COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, IADL = instrumental activities of daily living, SD = standard deviation.

  • * Unless specified otherwise.

  • Defined as having received a prescription for the treatment and partial or full adherence to treatment.