Characteristic | No. (%) of patients in the derivation cohort* n = 1 160 429 | No. (%) of patients in the validation cohort* n = 195 951 | No. (%) of patients in the total cohort* n = 1 356 380 |
---|---|---|---|
Age, yr; mean ± SD | 79.6 ± 10.5 | 80.6 ± 10.4 | 79.7 ± 10.5 |
Sex | |||
Female | 759 069 (65.4) | 122 913 (62.7) | 881 982 (65.0) |
Male | 401 360 (34.6) | 73 038 (37.3) | 474 398 (35.0) |
Highest level of education completed | |||
Grade 11 or lower | 411 100 (35.4) | 56 275 (28.7) | 467 375 (34.5) |
High school | 190 153 (16.4) | 28 617 (14.6) | 218 770 (16.1) |
Technical or trade school | 71 070 (6.1) | 10 208 (5.2) | 81 278 (6.0) |
Some college or university | 173 885 (15.0) | 30 130 (15.4) | 204 015 (15.0) |
Unknown | 314 221 (27.1) | 70 721 (36.1) | 384 942 (28.4) |
Diseases | |||
Stroke | 224 251 (19.3) | 36 915 (18.8) | 261 166 (19.3) |
Congestive heart failure | 158 167 (13.6) | 27 323 (13.9) | 185 490 (13.7) |
Coronary artery disease | 311 387 (26.8) | 51 775 (26.4) | 363 162 (26.8) |
Hypertension | 700 398 (60.4) | 124 052 (63.3) | 824 450 (60.8) |
Alzheimer disease or other dementias | 259 128 (22.3) | 59 182 (30.2) | 318 310 (23.5) |
Multiple sclerosis | 14 527 (1.3) | 2165 (1.1) | 16 692 (1.2) |
Parkinsonism | 54 632 (4.7) | 10 592 (5.4) | 65 224 (4.8) |
Cancer (in the past 5 yr, excluding skin cancer) | 169 592 (14.6) | 26 710 (13.6) | 196 302 (14.5) |
Emphysema, COPD or asthma | 210 868 (18.2) | 37 406 (19.1) | 248 274 (18.3) |
Renal failure | 85 784 (7.4) | 16 831 (8.6) | 102 615 (7.6) |
IADL Difficulty scale | |||
0 = No difficulty in performing ordinary housework, meal preparation or phone use | 40 376 (3.5) | 3222 (1.6) | 43 598 (3.2) |
1 | 76 628 (6.6) | 5611 (2.9) | 82 239 (6.1) |
2 | 133 787 (11.5) | 14 365 (7.3) | 148 152 (10.9) |
3 | 17 557 (1.5) | 2794 (1.4) | 20 351 (1.5) |
4 | 240 055 (20.7) | 32 954 (16.8) | 273 009 (20.1) |
5 | 450 753 (38.8) | 87 753 (44.8) | 538 506 (39.7) |
6 = Great difficulty in performing ordinary housework, meal preparation or phone use | 201 273 (17.3) | 49 252 (25.1) | 250 525 (18.5) |
ADL Self-performance Hierarchy scale | |||
0 = Independent in maintaining personal hygiene, toilet use, locomotion and eating | 663 190 (57.2) | 84 980 (43.4) | 748 170 (55.2) |
1 | 127 685 (11.0) | 25 871 (13.2) | 153 556 (11.3) |
2 | 172 038 (14.8) | 39 253 (20.0) | 211 291 (15.6) |
3 | 81 754 (7.0) | 19 686 (10.0) | 101 440 (7.5) |
4 | 60 026 (5.2) | 13 715 (7.0) | 73 741 (5.4) |
5 | 41 638 (3.6) | 9385 (4.8) | 51 023 (3.8) |
6 = Total dependence in maintaining personal hygiene, toilet use, locomotion and eating | 14 098 (1.2) | 3061 (1.6) | 17 159 (1.3) |
Worsening ADL | |||
Yes | 512 843 (44.2) | 109 837 (56.1) | 622 680 (45.9) |
No | 647 586 (55.8) | 86 114 (43.9) | 733 700 (54.1) |
Cognitive skills for daily decision-making | |||
Worsening decision-making capacity | 204 918 (17.7) | 50 917 (26.0) | 255 835 (18.9) |
Signs and symptoms of health instability | |||
Vomiting in at least 2 of the last 3 d | 15 783 (1.4) | 2826 (1.4) | 18 609 (1.4) |
Edema in the last 3 d | 305 303 (26.3) | 62 326 (31.8) | 367 629 (27.1) |
Shortness of breath in the last 3 days | 297 853 (25.7) | 60 384 (30.8) | 358 237 (26.4) |
Weight loss of > 5% in the last 30 d or > 10% in the last 6 mo | 88 373 (7.6) | 17 630 (9.0) | 106 003 (7.8) |
Noticeable decrease in food or fluid consumption compared with normal | 35 632 (3.1) | 8749 (4.5) | 44 381 (3.3) |
Insufficient intake of fluids over the last 3 d | 16 483 (1.4) | 3865 (2.0) | 20 348 (1.5) |
Prognosis of less than 6 mo to live | |||
Yes | 14 030 (1.2) | 3072 (1.6) | 17 102 (1.3) |
No | 1 146 399 (98.8) | 192 879 (98.4) | 1 339 278 (98.7) |
Receipt of life-sustaining treatments or therapies | |||
Chemotherapy† | 18 626 (1.6) | 2189 (1.1) | 20 815 (1.5) |
Dialysis† | 16 907 (1.5) | 2940 (1.5) | 19 847 (1.5) |
Ventilator for assistive breathing or oxygen therapy† | 105 361 (9.1) | 19 739 (10.1) | 125 100 (9.2) |
No. of inpatient admissions over the past 90 d | |||
0 | 799 748 (68.9) | 125 997 (64.3) | 925 745 (68.3) |
1 | 302 152 (26.0) | 57 735 (29.5) | 359 887 (26.5) |
2 | 45 660 (3.9) | 9449 (4.8) | 55 109 (4.1) |
3 or more | 12 869 (1.1) | 2770 (1.4) | 15 639 (1.2) |
No. of emergency department visits over past 90 d | |||
0 | 942 148 (81.2) | 153 825 (78.5) | 1 095 973 (80.8) |
1 | 162 917 (14.0) | 30 329 (15.5) | 193 246 (14.2) |
2 | 36 657 (3.2) | 7604 (3.9) | 44 261 (3.3) |
3 or more | 18 707 (1.6) | 4193 (2.1) | 22 900 (1.7) |
Reason for assessment | |||
Initial assessment | 434 649 (37.5) | 77 171 (39.4) | 511 820 (37.7) |
Follow-up assessment | 204 139 (17.6) | 36 203 (18.5) | 240 342 (17.7) |
Routine assessment at a fixed interval | 441 476 (38.0) | 65 608 (33.5) | 507 084 (37.4) |
After discharge from hospital | 58 738 (5.1) | 11 770 (6.0) | 70 508 (5.2) |
Assessment owing to a change in health status | 21 427 (1.8) | 5199 (2.7) | 26 626 (2.0) |
Year of assessment | |||
2007 | 189 655 (16.3) | 0 (0.0) | 189 655 (14.0) |
2008 | 190 575 (16.4) | 0 (0.0) | 190 575 (14.1) |
2009 | 190 226 (16.4) | 0 (0.0) | 190 226 (14.0) |
2010 | 190 673 (16.4) | 0 (0.0) | 190 673 (14.1) |
2011 | 198 233 (17.1) | 0 (0.0) | 198 233 (14.6) |
2012 | 201 067 (17.3) | 0 (0.0) | 201 067 (14.8) |
2013 | 0 (0.0) | 195 951 (100.0) | 195 951 (14.4) |