Category or outcome | Health region | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ontario* | West | Central | Toronto | East | North | |
Estimated backlog size by surgical category† | ||||||
Cancer P2–P3 | 1537 (486–3427) | 206 (75–552) | 308 (130–588) | 488 (126–1265) | 376 (106–714) | 159 (49–308) |
Cancer P4 | 3615 (2440–4869) | 927 (597–1259) | 700 (450–952) | 986 (698–1298) | 911 (675–1148) | 91 (19–212) |
Vascular P2–P3 | 940 (430–1635) | 202 (60–408) | 296 (154–502) | 97 (31–176) | 284 (166–405) | 61 (20–145) |
Vascular P4 | 935 (412–1516) | 369 (160–587) | 314 (179–451) | 128 (54–209) | 111 (18–223) | 13 (1–46) |
Transplant | 243 (22–577) | 48 (4–113) | NA | 124 (11–293) | 72 (7–170) | NA |
Cardiac CABG | 295 (150–440) | 77 (39–115) | 71 (36–106) | 86 (44–128) | 37 (19–55) | 23 (12–35) |
Cardiac Valve | 175 (89–261) | 29 (15–43) | 64 (33–95) | 51 (26–76) | 20 (10–30) | 12 (6–17) |
Other P2–P3 | 20 400 (15 752–25 098) | 5361 (3418–7305) | 5858 (5082–6633) | 2098 (1458–2737) | 5671 (4779–6613) | 1412 (1013–1811) |
Other P4 | 107 873 (95 994–119 917) | 34 660 (31 117–38 203) | 26 560 (23 580–29 705) | 13 102 (11 674–14 530) | 26 702 (24 097–29 307) | 6849 (5526–8171) |
Pediatric P2–P3 | 3151 (1431–5729) | 858 (179–1537) | 561 (401–750) | 624 (379–870) | 869 (431–2123) | 239 (42–449) |
Pediatric P4 | 9200 (7301–11 122) | 3004 (2479–3501) | 2513 (2128–2899) | 1311 (1003–1618) | 1831 (1375–2339) | 540 (317–764) |
Total estimated backlog size | 148 364 (124 508–174 589) | 45 742 (38 143–53 624) | 37 245 (32 173–42 680) | 19 093 (15 504–23 199) | 36 885 (31 683–43 127) | 9399 (7005–11 959) |
Estimated time to clear the backlog‡ | ||||||
Estimated throughput (patients per week) | 717 (326–1367) | 933 (328–2532) | 809 (264–2250) | 278 (108–642) | 710 (240–1736) | 278 (92–669) |
Estimated clearance time, wk | 84 (46–145) | 79 (31–159) | 74 (26–156) | 120 (58–231) | 87 (34–180) | 53 (20–117) |
Estimated resources required‡ | ||||||
OR time (h) per week | 719 (431–1038) | 926 (552–1344) | 735 (433–1057) | 452 (260–658) | 705 (420–1022) | 271 (163–388) |
Ward beds per week | 265 (87–678) | 352 (58–1483) | 295 (48–1142) | 99 (22–305) | 258 (44–935) | 110 (15–392) |
ICU beds per week | 9 (4–20) | 14 (3–44) | 5 (1–17) | 9 (2–27) | 7 (2–20) | 3 (1–10) |
Note: CABG = coronary artery bypass graft, ICU = intensive care unit, NA = no surgeries are performed in this health region, OR = operating room, P2–P4 indicates priority level 2 to 4.
↵* The Ontario results for estimated time and resources required to clear the backlog are volume-weighted averages of each regional outputs.
↵† Backlog size estimates are reported as the mean (95% prediction interval).
↵‡ Results are reported as the mean (95% confidence interval) of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis.