Table 2:

Provincial and regional results from the probabilistic sensitivity analysis showing the estimated backlog size and the time and resources required to clear the backlog

Category or outcomeHealth region
Ontario*WestCentralTorontoEastNorth
Estimated backlog size by surgical category
 Cancer P2–P31537 (486–3427)206 (75–552)308 (130–588)488 (126–1265)376 (106–714)159 (49–308)
 Cancer P43615 (2440–4869)927 (597–1259)700 (450–952)986 (698–1298)911 (675–1148)91 (19–212)
 Vascular P2–P3940 (430–1635)202 (60–408)296 (154–502)97 (31–176)284 (166–405)61 (20–145)
 Vascular P4935 (412–1516)369 (160–587)314 (179–451)128 (54–209)111 (18–223)13 (1–46)
 Transplant243 (22–577)48 (4–113)NA124 (11–293)72 (7–170)NA
 Cardiac CABG295 (150–440)77 (39–115)71 (36–106)86 (44–128)37 (19–55)23 (12–35)
 Cardiac Valve175 (89–261)29 (15–43)64 (33–95)51 (26–76)20 (10–30)12 (6–17)
 Other P2–P320 400 (15 752–25 098)5361 (3418–7305)5858 (5082–6633)2098 (1458–2737)5671 (4779–6613)1412 (1013–1811)
 Other P4107 873 (95 994–119 917)34 660 (31 117–38 203)26 560 (23 580–29 705)13 102 (11 674–14 530)26 702 (24 097–29 307)6849 (5526–8171)
 Pediatric P2–P33151 (1431–5729)858 (179–1537)561 (401–750)624 (379–870)869 (431–2123)239 (42–449)
 Pediatric P49200 (7301–11 122)3004 (2479–3501)2513 (2128–2899)1311 (1003–1618)1831 (1375–2339)540 (317–764)
 Total estimated backlog size148 364 (124 508–174 589)45 742 (38 143–53 624)37 245 (32 173–42 680)19 093 (15 504–23 199)36 885 (31 683–43 127)9399 (7005–11 959)
Estimated time to clear the backlog
 Estimated throughput (patients per week)717 (326–1367)933 (328–2532)809 (264–2250)278 (108–642)710 (240–1736)278 (92–669)
 Estimated clearance time, wk84 (46–145)79 (31–159)74 (26–156)120 (58–231)87 (34–180)53 (20–117)
Estimated resources required
 OR time (h) per week719 (431–1038)926 (552–1344)735 (433–1057)452 (260–658)705 (420–1022)271 (163–388)
 Ward beds per week265 (87–678)352 (58–1483)295 (48–1142)99 (22–305)258 (44–935)110 (15–392)
 ICU beds per week9 (4–20)14 (3–44)5 (1–17)9 (2–27)7 (2–20)3 (1–10)
  • Note: CABG = coronary artery bypass graft, ICU = intensive care unit, NA = no surgeries are performed in this health region, OR = operating room, P2–P4 indicates priority level 2 to 4.

  • * The Ontario results for estimated time and resources required to clear the backlog are volume-weighted averages of each regional outputs.

  • Backlog size estimates are reported as the mean (95% prediction interval).

  • Results are reported as the mean (95% confidence interval) of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis.