Table 5:

Summary of model outputs for the 4 scenarios studied with extended community (workplace and mixed-age venue) closures*

VariableMinimal controlMaintained physical distancingEnhanced case detection and contact tracingCombined interventions
Total attack rate, % (95% CrI)0.4 (0.1–57.0)0.3 (0.04–43.3)0.2 (0.03–0.9)0.2 (0.07–0.9)
Clinical attack rate, % (95% CrI)0.3 (0.06–34.9)0.2 (0.03–26.5)0.1 (0.02–0.6)0.2 (0.05–0.5)
Asymptomatic attack rate, % (95% CrI)0.2 (0.03–22.2)0.1 (0.01–16.8)0.1 (0.01–0.3)0.1 (0.02–0.3)
Proportion of asymptomatic cases of total cases, % (95% CrI)38.5 (33.8–42.6)38.8 (28.0–43.6)37.9 (25.3–44.7)37.5 (27.4–44.3)
Clinical cases that are mild (not admitted to hospital), % (95% CrI)89.0 (85.5–93.1)89.6 (83.3–93.8)89.5 (82.2–93.2)89.6 (79.7–93.1)
Clinical cases admitted to hospital (includes ICU), % (95% CrI)11.0 (6.9–14.5)10.4 (6.2–16.7)10.5 (6.8–17.8)10.4 (6.9–20.3)
Clinical cases admitted into the ICU, % (95% CrI)2.8 (0.7–5.2)2.6 (0.0–42.9)2.7 (0.0–7.4)2.8 (0.4–6.1)
Hospital-admitted cases admitted into the ICU, % (95% CrI)25.6 (5.3–57.1)24.7 (0.0–42.9)25.9 (0.0–55.6)23.8 (4.0–46.7)
Mortality rate of clinical cases, % (95% CrI)3.2 (0.0–4.7)1.7 (0.0–4.8)1.4 (0.0–4.3)1.5 (0.0–5.1)
Total cases (clinical and asymptomatic) per 100 000, median (95% CrI)436 (96–56 988)290 (42–43 333)237 (30–886)226 (70–869)
Total clinical cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI)263 (58–34 923)169 (29–26 531)143 (22–549)145 (46–543)
Total asymptomatic cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI)166 (34–22 192)119 (13–16 802)89 (7–337)91 (22–326)
Total hospital-admitted cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI)27 (4–3922)18 (5–2758)16 (2–54)15 (5–60)
Total cases admitted into the ICU per 100 000, median (95% CrI)11 (1–1019)5 (0–705)5 (0–15)4 (1–16)
Total deaths per 100 000, median (95% CrI)5 (0–1218)3 (0–784)2 (0–12)2 (0–9)
Infections acquired at school, % (95% CrI)9.0 (1.0–11.6)4.2 (0.0–9.4)4.0 (0.0–8.2)4.0 (0.0–8.7)
infections acquired at work, % (95% CrI)14.2 (3.8–20.5)13.6 (8.3–18.4)12.4 (5.3–18.9)12.5 (7.1–23.0)
Infections acquired in mixed-age venues, % (95% CrI)25.3 (13.1–33.9)22.8 (16.3–28.4)22.5 (12.2–29.1)22.5 (16.2–30.5)
Infections acquired in the household, % (95% CrI)54.7 (50.9–62.7)59.6 (53.0–67.1)60.2 (56.7–75.0)59.8 (52.2–64.1)
No. of infections acquired at school per 100 000, median (95% CrI)29 (1–5307)11 (0–3900)9 (0–53)10 (0–60)
No. of infections acquired at work per 100 000, median (95% CrI)62 (5–8194)41.5 (5–5948)30 (1–105)31 (6–125)
No. of infections acquired in mixed-age venue per 100 000, median (95% CrI)109 (17–14 513)60 (8–10 461)52 (4–201)47 (14–199)
No. of infections acquired at home per 100 000, median (95% CrI)243 (52–29 116)173 (22–22 991)138 (15–541)139 (35–508)
  • Note: CrI = credible interval, ICU = intensive care unit.

  • * Median values from 50 realizations are presented in the table with 2.5th percentile and 97.5th percentile values representing the 95% CrI. Wide range in the 95% CrI indicates dichotomous outcomes in model runs (i.e., epidemic v. epidemic elimination). The median values indicate the most likely outcome out of 50 realizations.