Table 3:

Summary of model outputs for the 4 scenarios studied*

VariableMinimal controlMaintained physical distancingEnhanced case detection and contact tracingCombined interventions
Total attack rate, % (95% CrI)56.1 (0.05–57.1)41.6 (0.04–43.4)0.36 (0.03–23.5)0.25 (0.03–1.7)
Clinical attack rate, % (95% CrI)34.5 (0.03–35.1)25.4 (0.03–26.6)0.23 (0.02–14.3)0.16 (0.02–1.0)
Asymptomatic attack rate, % (95% CrI)21.6 (0.01–22.1)16.2 (0.01–16.9)0.13 (0.01–9.2)0.09 (0.01–0.7)
Proportion of asymptomatic cases of total cases, % (95% CrI)38.5 (26.7–42.5)38.8 (28.6–40.2)38.9 (24.1–40.5)36.9 (28.6–42.8)
Clinical cases that are mild (not admitted to hospital), % (95% CrI)89.1 (4.1–21.2)89.5 (84.0–94.9)89.7 (80.0–93.0)90.0 (60.9–93.6)
Clinical cases that are admitted to hospital (includes ICU), % (95% CrI)10.9 (4.1–21.2)10.5 (5.1–16.0)10.3 (7.0–20.0)10.0 (6.5–39.1)
Clinical cases admitted into the ICU, % (95% CrI)2.8 (0.0–7.9)2.7 (0.0–5.9)2.6 (0.0–5.0)2.7 (0.0–6.2)
Hospital-admitted cases admitted into the ICU, % (95% CrI)25.4 (0.0–50.0)25.4 (0.0–50.0)25.4 (0.0–40.0)24.1 (0.0–57.1)
Mortality rate of clinical cases, % (95% CrI)3.2 (0.0–3.5)2.9 (0.0–4.8)1.7 (0.0–4.0)1.4 (0.0–5.3)
Total cases (clinical and asymptomatic) per 100 000, median (95% CrI)56 148 (45–57 068)41 579 (44–43 455)358 (29–23 408)247 (28–1679)
Total clinical cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI)34 463 (31–35 087)25 413 (30–26 626)227 (22–14 301)157 (20–991)
Total asymptomatic cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI)21 615 (12–22 101)16 152 (14–16 881)129 (7–9249)94 (8–688)
Total hospital-admitted cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI)3747 (2–3903)2661 (3–2824)25 (2–1464)16 (4–105)
Total cases admitted into the ICU per 100 000, median (95% CrI)950 (0–1031)665 (0–748)7 (0–387)4 (0–28)
Total deaths per 100 000, median (95% CrI)1113 (0–1208)739 (0–830)4 (0–296)2 (0–13)
Infections acquired at school, % (95% CrI)9.1 (1.7–9.7)8.9 (0.0–9.4)9.1 (0.0–13.3)4.8 (0.0–10.8)
infections acquired at work, % (95% CrI)14.2 (9.1–20.5)13.7 (5.3–19.5)13.1 (5.8–25.8)13.3 (5.8–19.4)
Infections acquired in mixed-age venues, % (95% CrI)25.4 (14.3–28.2)24.0 (12.3–27.2)23.2 (11.1–27.8)22.4 (13.6–30.3)
Infections acquired in the household, % (95% CrI)51.2 (50.8–68.2)53.3 (52.9–64.9)56.2 (53.1–69.2)58.4 (51.6–69.7)
No. of infections acquired at school per 100 000, median (95% CrI)5134 (1–5336)3759 (0–3920)18 (0–2365)11 (0–159)
No. of infections acquired at work per 100 000, median (95% CrI)7947 (4–8239)5655 (2–6000)43 (2–3107)33 (3–217)
No. of infections acquired in mixed-age venue per 100 000, median (95% CrI)14 225 (6–14 694)9941 (6–10 503)83 (2–5511)56 (3–371)
No. of infections acquired at home per 100 000, median (95% CrI)28 659 (24–29 137)22 176 (23–23 080)210 (16–12 591)142 (15–942)
  • Note: CrI = credible interval, ICU = intensive care unit.

  • * Median values from 50 realizations are presented in the table with 2.5th percentile and 97.5th percentile values representing the 95% CrI. Wide range in the 95% CrI indicates dichotomous outcomes across the model runs (i.e., epidemic v. epidemic elimination). The median values indicate the most likely outcome out of 50 realizations.