Table 1:

Key variables for modelling

VariableBase-case valueSource
Number of patients with COVID-19 reported in Ontario, per day, by scenarioSee Figure 2Estimated as described in text
Probability of needing admission to hospital0.18Public Health Agency of Canada estimate13
Probability of needing ICU-level care given admission to hospital0.48Calibrated based on Public Health Agency of Canada estimate13
Probability of patients in ICU needing ventilation0.78CCSO estimate on Apr. 13, 202014
Probability that patients on the ward deteriorate and need ICU-level care0Assumption
Length of stay, ward (no ICU admission)17 dBellani et al., 201615
Length of stay, ICU (with or without ventilation)11 dBellani et al., 201615
Length of stay, ward after a stay in ICU6 dBellani et al., 201615
Probability of death, ward patients0Assumption guided by Wu and McGoogan 202011
Probability of death, ICU patients0.35Bellani et al., 201615
Probability of death, patients with ventilation0.35Bellani et al., 201615
Probability of death, patients waiting for ventilation1.0Assumption
  • Note: CCSO = Critical Care Services Ontario, COVID-19 = coronavirus disease 2019, ICU = intensive care unit.