Key variables for modelling
| Variable | Base-case value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Number of patients with COVID-19 reported in Ontario, per day, by scenario | See Figure 2 | Estimated as described in text |
| Probability of needing admission to hospital | 0.18 | Public Health Agency of Canada estimate13 |
| Probability of needing ICU-level care given admission to hospital | 0.48 | Calibrated based on Public Health Agency of Canada estimate13 |
| Probability of patients in ICU needing ventilation | 0.78 | CCSO estimate on Apr. 13, 202014 |
| Probability that patients on the ward deteriorate and need ICU-level care | 0 | Assumption |
| Length of stay, ward (no ICU admission) | 17 d | Bellani et al., 201615 |
| Length of stay, ICU (with or without ventilation) | 11 d | Bellani et al., 201615 |
| Length of stay, ward after a stay in ICU | 6 d | Bellani et al., 201615 |
| Probability of death, ward patients | 0 | Assumption guided by Wu and McGoogan 202011 |
| Probability of death, ICU patients | 0.35 | Bellani et al., 201615 |
| Probability of death, patients with ventilation | 0.35 | Bellani et al., 201615 |
| Probability of death, patients waiting for ventilation | 1.0 | Assumption |
Note: CCSO = Critical Care Services Ontario, COVID-19 = coronavirus disease 2019, ICU = intensive care unit.