Description of parameters and their values or ranges for each age group
| Description | Age group | References | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–19 yr | 20–49 yr | 50–64 yr | ≥ 65 yr | ||
| Transmission probability per contact, calibrated to R0 = 2, 2.5 | |||||
| R0 = 2 | 0.0356 | 0.0356 | 0.0356 | 0.0356 | Li et al., (13) Wu et al. (14) |
| R0 = 2.5 | 0.0455 | 0.0455 | 0.0455 | 0.0455 | |
| Relative infectivity of mild illness compared with severe and critical illness | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | Li et al. (17) |
| Average duration of incubation period, d | LogN (5.2, 0.1) | LogN (5.2, 0.1) | LogN (5.2, 0.1) | LogN (5.2, 0.1) | Li et al., (13) Lauer et al. (18) |
| Proportion of cases who exhibit mild symptoms (based on reported cases in different age groups) | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.20 | Moghadas et al., (7) WHO (19) |
| Average infectious period, d | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | Estimated |
| Probability of self-isolation after symptom onset for severe and critical cases | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | Assumed |
| Probability of self-isolation after symptom onset for mild cases | 0–0.8 | 0–0.8 | 0–0.80 | 0–0.80 | Varied |
| Time from symptom onset to self-isolation, d | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Assumed |
| Average time from symptom onset to hospital admission, d | Unif (2, 5) | Unif (2, 5) | Unif (2, 5) | Unif (2, 5) | Moghadas et al., (7) Sanche et al. (20) |
| Proportion of symptomatic patients with severe and critical illness requiring hospital care or ICU | Unif (0.02, 0.03) | Unif (0.28, 0.34) | Unif (0.28, 0.34) | Unif (0.60, 0.68) | Estimated from WHO, (19) MIDAS (21) |
| Proportion of cases admitted to hospital who require ICU | Unif (0.01, 0.013) | Unif (0.03, 0.05) | Unif (0.05, 0.2) | Unif (0.05, 0.15) | Estimated from MIDAS (21) |
| Length of hospital stay before recovery, d | Gamma (4.5, 2.75) truncated between 8 and 17 | Moghadas et al., (7) Sanche et al. (20) | |||
| Length of ICU stay before recovery, d | Gamma (4.5, 2.75) truncated between 10 and 19 | Moghadas et al., (7) Sanche et al. (20) | |||
Note: Gamma(a, b) = gamma distribution with shape parameter a and scale parameter b, ICU = intensive care unit, LogN(a,b) = log normal distribution with shape parameter a and scale parameter b, Unif (a, b) = uniform distribution with mean a and standard deviation b.