Table 1:

Characteristics of studies included in the systematic review

Study, yearCentreDiagnosis/procedure/practiceNo. of eligible patientsProportion of eligible patients enrolled, %Proportion of enrolled patients with SQ response, %Proportion of patients with “No” as SQ response, %Incidence of death, % (95% CI)No. of evaluators per patient; total no. of evaluators per studyFollow-up, mo
Barnes et al.,21 200816 general practice clinicsCongestive heart failure1555231/1555 (15)*212/231 (92)76/212 (36)6.1 (3.4–10.0)1 general practitioner; unclear12
Moss et al.,1 20083 dialysis units looked after by 1 nephrology groupHemodialysis150 (consecutive)147/150 (98)147/147 (100)34/147 (23)15.0 (9.6–21.8)1 nurse practitioner; 312
Cohen et al.,20 20105 dialysis units looked after by 1 nephrology groupHemodialysis1026 (consecutive)1026/1026 (100)874/1026 (85)127/874 (15)Derivation, 6.0 (4.0–8.7); validation, 8.4 (6.0–11.5)1 nephrologist; unclear6
Moss et al.,26 20101 cancer centreCancer853 (consecutive outpatients)853/853 (100)826/853 (97)130/826 (16)8.6 (6.8–10.7)1 oncologist; 412
Da Silva Gane et al.,30 20133 dialysis unitsHemodialysis344 (prevalent)344/344 (100)344/344 (100)220/344 (64)15.1 (11.5–19.3)1 nephrologist; 612
Pang et al.,22 20131 dialysis unitPeritoneal dialysis367 (prevalent)367/367 (100)367/367 (100)109/367 (30)12.0 (8.8–15.8)3 nephrologists;§ 312
Reilly et al.,23 20131 inpatient wardRespiratory diseaseUnclear85 (randomly selected); unclear denominator85/85 (100)67/85 (79)32.9 (23.1–44.0)Respirologists (n unclear); unclear12
Khan et al.,24 20141 medical–surgical ICUCritically ill (mixed)500 (consecutive)500/500 (100)500/500 (100)238/500 (48)36.0 (31.8–40.4)Intensivists (n unclear); unclear6
Moroni et al.,25 201442 general practitioners (unclear number of clinics)CancerUnclear231 (enrolled by participating physicians)231/231 (100)126/231 (55)45.0 (38.5–51.7)1 general practitioner; 4212
Vick et al.,28 2015Single centreCancer4779“All patients seen” by participating clinicians; unclear no. of nonparticipating physicians4779/4779 (100)732/4779 (15)10.0 (9.2–10.9)1 oncologist or nurse practitioner; 7612
Gerlach et al.,33 2016Single centreCancer828 (consecutive outpatients)828/828 (100)828/828 (100)146/828 (18)17.0 (14.5–19.8)1 oncologist or palliative care physician; 1318
Amro et al.,31 20162 dialysis units looked after by 1 nephrology groupHemodialysis201 (prevalent)201/201 (100)201/201 (100)50/201 (25)19.4 (14.2–25.6)1 nephrologist; 912
Lefkowits et al.,35 2016Single centreCancer263 (prevalent, receiving chemotherapy or radiotherapy)263/263 (100)263/263 (100)87/263 (33)20.5 (15.8–25.9)1 gynecology–oncology physician; 7 physicians††12
Carmen et al.,32 20161 dialysis unitHemodialysis49 receiving hemodialysis for more than 3 mo in 2014; unclear if incident or prevalent49/49 (100)49/49 (100)20/49 (41)18.4 (8.8–32.0)“Medical staff”; unclear12
Lakin et al.,34 2016Single centrePrimary care practiceUnclearPatients screened for “high-risk care management program” over 18-month period, unclear number of eligible patients1737/1737 (100)114/1737 (7)6.4 (5.3–7.7)1 primary care physician; unclear12
  • Note: CI = confidence interval, ICU = intensive care unit, SQ = surprise question, SQ+ = response to SQ is no, SQ− = response to SQ is yes.

  • * Interest in participation expressed by 748 patients; 587 of these were asked for demographic information and 542 returned the survey they were sent; 11/16 general practice clinics agreed to participate, for a total of 231 patients.

  • Data from the derivation cohort (n = 512) were published. We obtained data for the validation cohort (n = 514) from the authors.

  • SQ+ (“I would not be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 mo”) was defined as a positive response from one of the nephrologist evaluators.

  • § SQ+ (“I would not be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 mo”) was defined as a positive response from any of the 3 evaluators.

  • Eight of 50 (16.0%) eligible general practitioners refused to enrol their patients.

  • ** SQ+ and SQ− for each patient were defined by consensus.

  • †† Data for physician responses are reported here for consistency with other studies.