Characteristics of studies included in the systematic review
| Study, year | Centre | Diagnosis/procedure/practice | No. of eligible patients | Proportion of eligible patients enrolled, % | Proportion of enrolled patients with SQ response, % | Proportion of patients with “No” as SQ response, % | Incidence of death, % (95% CI) | No. of evaluators per patient; total no. of evaluators per study | Follow-up, mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnes et al., (21) 2008 | 16 general practice clinics | Congestive heart failure | 1555 | 231/1555 (15)* | 212/231 (92) | 76/212 (36) | 6.1 (3.4–10.0) | 1 general practitioner; unclear | 12 |
| Moss et al., (1) 2008 | 3 dialysis units looked after by 1 nephrology group | Hemodialysis | 150 (consecutive) | 147/150 (98) | 147/147 (100) | 34/147 (23) | 15.0 (9.6–21.8) | 1 nurse practitioner; 3 | 12 |
| Cohen et al., (20) 2010 | 5 dialysis units looked after by 1 nephrology group | Hemodialysis | 1026 (consecutive)† | 1026/1026 (100) | 874/1026 (85) | 127/874 (15) | Derivation, 6.0 (4.0–8.7); validation, 8.4 (6.0–11.5) | 1 nephrologist; unclear | 6 |
| Moss et al., (26) 2010 | 1 cancer centre | Cancer | 853 (consecutive outpatients) | 853/853 (100) | 826/853 (97) | 130/826 (16) | 8.6 (6.8–10.7) | 1 oncologist; 4 | 12 |
| Da Silva Gane et al., (30) 2013 | 3 dialysis units | Hemodialysis | 344 (prevalent) | 344/344 (100) | 344/344 (100) | 220/344 (64) | 15.1 (11.5–19.3) | 1 nephrologist; 6‡ | 12 |
| Pang et al., (22) 2013 | 1 dialysis unit | Peritoneal dialysis | 367 (prevalent) | 367/367 (100) | 367/367 (100) | 109/367 (30) | 12.0 (8.8–15.8) | 3 nephrologists;§ 3 | 12 |
| Reilly et al., (23) 2013 | 1 inpatient ward | Respiratory disease | Unclear | 85 (randomly selected); unclear denominator | 85/85 (100) | 67/85 (79) | 32.9 (23.1–44.0) | Respirologists (n unclear); unclear | 12 |
| Khan et al., (24) 2014 | 1 medical–surgical ICU | Critically ill (mixed) | 500 (consecutive) | 500/500 (100) | 500/500 (100) | 238/500 (48) | 36.0 (31.8–40.4) | Intensivists (n unclear); unclear | 6 |
| Moroni et al., (25) 2014 | 42 general practitioners (unclear number of clinics) | Cancer | Unclear | 231 (enrolled by participating physicians)¶ | 231/231 (100) | 126/231 (55) | 45.0 (38.5–51.7) | 1 general practitioner; 42 | 12 |
| Vick et al., (28) 2015 | Single centre | Cancer | 4779 | “All patients seen” by participating clinicians; unclear no. of nonparticipating physicians | 4779/4779 (100) | 732/4779 (15) | 10.0 (9.2–10.9) | 1 oncologist or nurse practitioner; 76 | 12 |
| Gerlach et al., (33) 2016 | Single centre | Cancer | 828 (consecutive outpatients) | 828/828 (100) | 828/828 (100) | 146/828 (18) | 17.0 (14.5–19.8) | 1 oncologist or palliative care physician; 13 | 18 |
| Amro et al., (31) 2016 | 2 dialysis units looked after by 1 nephrology group | Hemodialysis | 201 (prevalent) | 201/201 (100) | 201/201 (100) | 50/201 (25) | 19.4 (14.2–25.6) | 1 nephrologist; 9 | 12 |
| Lefkowits et al., (35) 2016 | Single centre | Cancer | 263 (prevalent, receiving chemotherapy or radiotherapy) | 263/263 (100) | 263/263 (100) | 87/263 (33) | 20.5 (15.8–25.9) | 1 gynecology–oncology physician; 7 physicians†† | 12 |
| Carmen et al., (32) 2016 | 1 dialysis unit | Hemodialysis | 49 receiving hemodialysis for more than 3 mo in 2014; unclear if incident or prevalent | 49/49 (100) | 49/49 (100) | 20/49 (41) | 18.4 (8.8–32.0) | “Medical staff”; unclear | 12 |
| Lakin et al., (34) 2016 | Single centre | Primary care practice | Unclear | Patients screened for “high-risk care management program” over 18-month period, unclear number of eligible patients | 1737/1737 (100) | 114/1737 (7) | 6.4 (5.3–7.7) | 1 primary care physician; unclear | 12 |
Note: CI = confidence interval, ICU = intensive care unit, SQ = surprise question, SQ+ = response to SQ is no, SQ− = response to SQ is yes.
↵* Interest in participation expressed by 748 patients; 587 of these were asked for demographic information and 542 returned the survey they were sent; 11/16 general practice clinics agreed to participate, for a total of 231 patients.
↵† Data from the derivation cohort (n = 512) were published. We obtained data for the validation cohort (n = 514) from the authors.
↵‡ SQ+ (“I would not be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 mo”) was defined as a positive response from one of the nephrologist evaluators.
↵§ SQ+ (“I would not be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 mo”) was defined as a positive response from any of the 3 evaluators.
↵¶ Eight of 50 (16.0%) eligible general practitioners refused to enrol their patients.
** SQ+ and SQ− for each patient were defined by consensus.
↵†† Data for physician responses are reported here for consistency with other studies.