Year | No. of deaths | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | Positive predictive value* (95% CI) | κ (95% CI) | AUC (95% CI) | LR (95% CI) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coroners’ data | Vital statistics data | Positive | Negative | ||||||
2003 | 353 | 221 | 0.56 (0.50–0.61) | 0.99 (0.99–0.99) | 0.89 (0.84–0.93) | 0.69 (0.64–0.73) | 0.78 (0.75–0.80) | 1921 (1076–2276) | 0.44 (0.39–0.50) |
2004 | 328 | 237 | 0.55 (0.49–0.60) | 0.99 (0.99–0.99) | 0.76 (0.70–0.81) | 0.63 (0.59–0.68) | 0.77 (0.75–0.80) | 769 (543–994) | 0.45 (0.40–0.51) |
2005 | 415 | 278 | 0.60 (0.55–0.65) | 0.99 (0.99–0.99) | 0.89 (0.85–0.93) | 0.71 (0.68–0.75) | 0.80 (0.78–0.82) | 1674 (1018–2330) | 0.40 (0.35–0.45) |
2006 | 415 | 267 | 0.56 (0.51–0.61) | 0.99 (0.99–0.99) | 0.87 (0.82–0.91) | 0.67 (0.64–0.72) | 0.78 (0.75–0.80) | 1288 (823–1752) | 0.44 (0.39–0.49) |
2007 | 450 | 309 | 0.62 (0.57–0.66) | 0.99 (0.99–0.99) | 0.90 (0.86–0.93) | 0.73 (0.70–0.77) | 0.81 (0.79–0.83) | 1711 (1053–2369) | 0.38 (0.33–0.43) |
2008 | 472 | 324 | 0.62 (0.57–0.66) | 0.99 (0.99–0.99) | 0.90 (0.86–0.93) | 0.73 (0.70–0.76) | 0.81 (0.79–0.83) | 1619 (1016–2222) | 0.38 (0.34–0.43) |
2009 | 505 | 392 | 0.67 (0.63–0.71) | 0.99 (0.99–0.99) | 0.87 (0.83–0.90) | 0.76 (0.73–0.79) | 0.84 (0.82–0.86) | 1126 (792–1461) | 0.33 (0.28–0.37) |
2010 | 542 | 447 | 0.75 (0.71–0.78) | 0.99 (0.99–0.99) | 0.90 (0.88–0.93) | 0.82 (0.79–0.84) | 0.87 (0.85–0.89) | 1525 (1032–2018) | 0.25 (0.22–0.29) |
Note: AUC = area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, CI = confidence interval, LR = likelihood ratio.
↵* Negative predictive value = 0.99 for all algorithms.