Table 1:

Treatment-related variables used in the model

VariableParameter estimate (range)Source or reference no.
Probability of receiving treatment, by fibrosis stage and viral genotype
Fibrosis stage 0
 Genotype 10.37(0.28–0.46)TWH medical records
 Genotype 2 or 30.47(0.35–0.59)TWH medical records
 Genotype 4, 5 or 60.5(0.38–0.63)TWH medical records
Fibrosis stage 1
 Genotype 10.5(0.38–0.63)TWH medical records
 Genotype 2 or 30.66(0.50–0.83)TWH medical records
 Genotype 4, 5 or 60.5(0.38–0.63)TWH medical records
Fibrosis stage 2
 Genotype 10.5(0.38–0.63)TWH medical records
 Genotype 2 or 30.66(0.50–0.83)TWH medical records
 Genotype 4, 5 or 60.5(0.38–0.63)TWH medical records
Fibrosis stage 3
 Genotype 10.55(0.41–0.69)TWH medical records
 Genotype 2 or 30.68(0.51–0.85)TWH medical records
 Genotype 4, 5 or 60.5(0.38–0.63)TWH medical records
Fibrosis stage 4
 Genotype 10.63(0.47–0.79)TWH medical records
 Genotype 2 or 30.62(0.47–0.78)TWH medical records
 Genotype 4, 5 or 60.61(0.46–0.76)TWH medical records
Variables for treatment-naive cohort
Simeprevir-based combination therapy for genotype 1
Sustained virologic response rate
 Fibrosis stage 0–20.84(0.81–0.87) (8), (9)
 Fibrosis stage 3 or 40.68(0.64–0.72) (8), (9)
Discontinuation rate0.156(0.117–0.195) (8), (9)
Virologic response rate*0.859(0.64–1.00) (8), (9)
Adverse events
 Anemia0.21(0.18–0.24) (8), (9)
 Depression0.12(0.06–0.21) (8), (9)
 Pruritus0.26(0.21–0.32) (8), (9)
 Rash0.29(0.25–0.32) (8), (9)
ABT-450–based combination therapy for genotype 1
Sustained virologic response rate
 Fibrosis stage 0–30.96(0.945–0.979) (11)
 Fibrosis stage 40.94(0.892–0.991) (10)
Discontinuation rate
 Fibrosis stage 0–30.01(0.008–0.013) (11)
 Fibrosis stage 40.02(0.02–0.03) (10)
Adverse events
 Anemia0.08(0.06–0.10) (10)
 Depression0.01(0.01–0.01) (10)
 Pruritus0.11(0.08–0.14) (10)
 Rash0.18(0.14–0.23) (10)
Pegylated interferon + ribavirin therapy
Genotype 1
Sustained virologic response rate
 Fibrosis stage 0–20.49(0.44–0.53) (18) (31)
 Fibrosis stage 3 or 40.37(0.30–0.43) (18) (31)
Discontinuation rate0.38(0.34–0.42) (18) (31)
Adverse events
 Anemia0.22(0.19–0.26) (20) (30)
 Depression0.22(0.19–0.26) (20) (30)
 Pruritus0.26(0.22–0.30) (20) (30)
 Rash0.25(0.22–0.29) (20) (30)
Genotype 2 or 3
Sustained virologic response rate0.77(0.71–0.82) (32) (38)
Discontinuation rate0.09(0.06–0.13) (32) (38)
Adverse events
 Anemia0.12(0.03–0.39) (32), (34), (36), (38)
 Depression0.19(0.12–0.28) (32), (34), (36), (38)
 Pruritus0.24(0.14–0.39) (32), (34), (36), (38)
 Rash0.24(0.14–0.39) (32), (34), (36), (38)
Genotype 4, 5 or 6§
Sustained virologic response rate0.65(0.57–0.71) (39) (41)
Discontinuation rate0.38(0.34–0.42) (20) (30)
Adverse events
 Anemia0.22(0.19–0.26) (20) (30)
 Depression0.22(0.19–0.26) (20) (30)
 Pruritus0.26(0.22–0.30) (20) (30)
 Rash0.25(0.22–0.29) (20) (30)
Sofosbuvir-based combination therapy
Genotype 2
Sustained virologic response rate
 Fibrosis stage 0–30.967(0.828–0.999) (7)
 Fibrosis stage 41(0.158–1.000) (7)
Discontinuation rate0(0.00–0.02) (7)
Adverse events
 Anemia0.08(0.06–0.10) (12)
 Depression0.055(0.04125–0.06875) (12)
 Pruritus0.07(0.0525–0.0875) (12)
 Rash0.09(0.0675–0.1125) (12)
Genotype 3
Sustained virologic response rate
 Fibrosis stage 0–30.946(0.863–0.976) (7)
 Fibrosis stage 40.923(0.640–0.998) (7)
Discontinuation rate0.016(0.012–0.020) (7)
Adverse events
 Anemia0.08(0.06–0.10) (12)
 Depression0.055(0.04125–0.06875) (12)
 Pruritus0.09(0.0675–0.1125) (7)
 Rash0.27(0.2025–0.3375) (12)
  • Note: TWH = Toronto Western Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, Ont.

  • * Eligible for short therapy.

  • Standard algorithm; 48-wk treatment.

  • Standard algorithm; 24-wk treatment.

  • § Data used here are based on genotype 4.