Table 4:

Pooled estimates of mean pain and disability scores when excluding cohorts with radiculopathy or radicular pain, and when excluding cohorts with participants younger than 18 years and older than 60 years

Group and time pointPooled estimate of mean pain scores (95% CI)*Pooled estimate of mean disability scores (95% CI)*
Inception time uncorrectedInception time correctedInception time uncorrectedInception time corrected
Excluding cohorts with radiculopathy or radicular pain
Acute low back pain (< 6 wk)
 Baseline57 (47 to 66)NA††44 (34 to 51)NA††
 6 wk22 (15 to 30)18 (2 to 35)15 (11 to 19)18 (13 to 23)
 26 wk21 (14 to 27)7 (−10 to 25)13 (10 to 16)12 (8 to 15)
 52 wk20 (14 to 27)7 (−16 to 30)13 (10 to 15)11 (7 to 15)
Subacute low back pain (6 to less than 12 wk)§
 Baseline61 (57 to 64)NA††47 (30 to 65)NA††
 6 wk15 (9 to 21)68 (55 to 81)35 (18 to 53)NA††
 26 wk29 (11 to 48)26 (13 to 39)26 (8 to 43)30 (11 to 50)
 52 wk63 (30 to 96)29 (16 to 42)23 (5 to 40)22 (2 to 42)
Excluding cohorts with participants aged < 18 yr and > 60 yr
Acute low back pain (< 6 wk)
 Baseline50 (38 to 61)NA††36 (31 to 41)NA††
 6 wk24 (14 to 33)27 (9 to 45)14 (12 to 17)23 (14 to 32)
 26 wk21 (16 to 26)20 (13 to 27)14 (10 to 18)15 (7 to 23)
 52 wk21 (16 to 26)20 (13 to 25)14 (9 to 20)15 (7 to 23)
Subacute low back pain (6 to less than 12 wk)**
 Baseline67 (46 to 88)NA
 6 wk15 (−16 to 46)61 (11 to 112)
 26 wk20 (4 to 35)27 (17 to 37)
 52 wk26 (12 to 39)29 (19 to 40)
  • Note: CI = confidence interval, NA = not applicable.

  • * All values are expressed in a scale ranging from 0 (i.e., no pain or disability) to 100 (i.e., maximum pain or disability).

  • Inception time uncorrected is time captured as time since entry into the study. Inception time corrected is time captured as time since pain onset.

  • Analyses included 12 (uncorrected) (38), (41), (42), (66), (89), (91), (97), (98), (105), (115), (118), (127) or 11 (corrected) (38), (41), (66), (89), (91), (97), (98), (105), (115), (118), (127) cohorts for pain, and 11 (uncorrected) (38), (41), (42), (66), (89), (97), (98), (105), (115), (118), (127) or 10 (corrected) (38), (41), (42), (66), (89), (97), (98), (105), (115), (118) cohorts for disability.

  • § Analyses included 3 (uncorrected) (84), (114), (120) or 3 (corrected) (84), (114), (120) cohorts for pain, and 3 (uncorrected) (84), (114), (120) or 3 (corrected) (84), (114), (120) cohorts for disability.

  • Analyses included 6 (uncorrected) (41), (66), (85), (92), (109), (127) or 5 (corrected) (41), (66), (92), (109), (127) cohorts for pain, and 6 (uncorrected) (41), (66), (85), (92), (109), (127) or 4 (corrected) (41), (66), (92), (109) cohorts for disability.

  • ** Analyses included 3 (uncorrected) (99), (114), (117) or 3 (corrected) (99), (114), (117) cohorts for pain. Disability analyses only had 2 cohorts available for analysis (99), (114) and we could therefore not fit the model.

  • †† The estimates of some values were not obtained from inception time–corrected models for pain or disability outcomes because this involved extrapolating the fitted curves beyond the range of the data.