Table 1:

Model parameters

Parameter descriptionSymbolValuePlausible rangeReference
Probability of transmission per contact multiplied by contacts per yearβ437164–728Calculated
Rate of recovery from infection (per yr)γ7341–91Wolfel et al.31
Basic reproduction numberR064–8UK Health Security Agency,3 Hogan et al.,7 Xia et al.28
Mixing between subpopulations (0 = random, 1 = assortative)η0.50–0.9Assumption (approach based on Garnett and Anderson13)
Proportion vaccinatedPv0.80.6–0.99Little32
Vaccine effectivenessVE0.80.4–0.8UK Health Security Agency,3 Hogan et al.,7 Higdon et al.33
Approximate adult population of OntarioN10 000 000Statistics Canada34
Baseline immunity in unvaccinated people0.2Assumption