Transmission probability per contact, calibrated to R0 = 2, 2.5 | | | | | |
R0 = 2 | 0.0356 | 0.0356 | 0.0356 | 0.0356 | Li et al., (13) Wu et al. (14) |
R0 = 2.5 | 0.0455 | 0.0455 | 0.0455 | 0.0455 | |
|
Relative infectivity of mild illness compared with severe and critical illness | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | Li et al. (17) |
|
Average duration of incubation period, d | LogN (5.2, 0.1) | LogN (5.2, 0.1) | LogN (5.2, 0.1) | LogN (5.2, 0.1) | Li et al., (13) Lauer et al. (18) |
|
Proportion of cases who exhibit mild symptoms (based on reported cases in different age groups) | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.20 | Moghadas et al., (7) WHO (19) |
|
Average infectious period, d | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | Estimated |
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Probability of self-isolation after symptom onset for severe and critical cases | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | Assumed |
|
Probability of self-isolation after symptom onset for mild cases | 0–0.8 | 0–0.8 | 0–0.80 | 0–0.80 | Varied |
|
Time from symptom onset to self-isolation, d | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Assumed |
|
Average time from symptom onset to hospital admission, d | Unif (2, 5) | Unif (2, 5) | Unif (2, 5) | Unif (2, 5) | Moghadas et al., (7) Sanche et al. (20) |
|
Proportion of symptomatic patients with severe and critical illness requiring hospital care or ICU | Unif (0.02, 0.03) | Unif (0.28, 0.34) | Unif (0.28, 0.34) | Unif (0.60, 0.68) | Estimated from WHO, (19) MIDAS (21) |
|
Proportion of cases admitted to hospital who require ICU | Unif (0.01, 0.013) | Unif (0.03, 0.05) | Unif (0.05, 0.2) | Unif (0.05, 0.15) | Estimated from MIDAS (21) |
|
Length of hospital stay before recovery, d | Gamma (4.5, 2.75) truncated between 8 and 17 | Moghadas et al., (7) Sanche et al. (20) |
|
Length of ICU stay before recovery, d | Gamma (4.5, 2.75) truncated between 10 and 19 | Moghadas et al., (7) Sanche et al. (20) |