Skip to main content

Main menu

  • Home
  • Content
    • Current issue
    • Past issues
    • Early releases
    • Collections
    • Sections
    • Blog
    • Infographics & illustrations
    • Podcasts
    • COVID-19 Articles
  • Authors & Reviewers
    • Overview for authors
    • Submission guidelines
    • Submit a manuscript
    • Forms
    • Editorial process
    • Editorial policies
    • Peer review process
    • Publication fees
    • Reprint requests
    • Open access
    • Patient engagement
  • Members & Subscribers
    • Benefits for CMA Members
    • CPD Credits for Members
    • Subscribe to CMAJ Print
    • Subscription Prices
  • Alerts
    • Email alerts
    • RSS
  • JAMC
    • À propos
    • Numéro en cours
    • Archives
    • Sections
    • Abonnement
    • Alertes
    • Trousse média 2023
  • CMAJ JOURNALS
    • CMAJ Open
    • CJS
    • JAMC
    • JPN

User menu

Search

  • Advanced search
CMAJ
  • CMAJ JOURNALS
    • CMAJ Open
    • CJS
    • JAMC
    • JPN
CMAJ

Advanced Search

  • Home
  • Content
    • Current issue
    • Past issues
    • Early releases
    • Collections
    • Sections
    • Blog
    • Infographics & illustrations
    • Podcasts
    • COVID-19 Articles
  • Authors & Reviewers
    • Overview for authors
    • Submission guidelines
    • Submit a manuscript
    • Forms
    • Editorial process
    • Editorial policies
    • Peer review process
    • Publication fees
    • Reprint requests
    • Open access
    • Patient engagement
  • Members & Subscribers
    • Benefits for CMA Members
    • CPD Credits for Members
    • Subscribe to CMAJ Print
    • Subscription Prices
  • Alerts
    • Email alerts
    • RSS
  • JAMC
    • À propos
    • Numéro en cours
    • Archives
    • Sections
    • Abonnement
    • Alertes
    • Trousse média 2023
  • Visit CMAJ on Facebook
  • Follow CMAJ on Twitter
  • Follow CMAJ on Pinterest
  • Follow CMAJ on Youtube
  • Follow CMAJ on Instagram
Research

Estimating the number needed to vaccinate to prevent diseases and death related to human papillomavirus infection

Marc Brisson, Nicolas Van de Velde, Philippe De Wals and Marie-Claude Boily
CMAJ August 28, 2007 177 (5) 464-468; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.061709
Marc Brisson PhD
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Nicolas Van de Velde MSc
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Philippe De Wals MD PhD
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Marie-Claude Boily PhD
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • Article
  • Figures & Tables
  • Related Content
  • Responses
  • Metrics
  • PDF
Loading
  • © 2007 Canadian Medical Association

Abstract

Background: A vaccine against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 6, 11, 16 and 18 is now licensed for use in Canada and many other countries. We sought to estimate the number needed to vaccinate to prevent HPV-related diseases and death.

Methods: A cohort model of the natural history of HPV infection was developed. Model simulations were based on 209 different parameter sets that reproduced Canadian HPV type-specific data for infection, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, cervical cancer and genital warts. The number needed to vaccinate was calculated as the number of women who would need to be vaccinated to prevent an HPV-related event during their lifetime.

Results: Among 12-year-old girls, we estimated that the number needed to vaccinate to prevent an episode of genital warts would be 8 (80% credibility interval [CrI] 5–15) and a case of cervical cancer 324 (80% CrI 195–757). These estimates were based on the assumption that the vaccine procures lifelong protection and that its efficacy is 95%. If vaccine protection is assumed to wane at 3% per year, the predicted number needed to vaccinate would increase to 14 (80% CrI 6–18) and 9080 (80% CrI 1040–does not prevent), respectively. The latter number would be greatly reduced with the addition of a booster dose, to 480 (80% CrI 254–1572).

Interpretation: Our model predictions suggest that vaccination with the currently available HPV vaccine may significantly reduce the incidence of genital warts, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and cervical cancer. However, the benefits (particularly in terms of cervical cancer reduction) are highly dependent on the duration of vaccine protection, on which evidence is currently limited.

View Full Text
PreviousNext
Back to top

In this issue

Canadian Medical Association Journal: 177 (5)
CMAJ
Vol. 177, Issue 5
28 Aug 2007
  • Table of Contents
  • Index by author

Article tools

Respond to this article
Print
Download PDF
Article Alerts
To sign up for email alerts or to access your current email alerts, enter your email address below:
Email Article

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word on CMAJ.

NOTE: We only request your email address so that the person you are recommending the page to knows that you wanted them to see it, and that it is not junk mail. We do not capture any email address.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
Estimating the number needed to vaccinate to prevent diseases and death related to human papillomavirus infection
(Your Name) has sent you a message from CMAJ
(Your Name) thought you would like to see the CMAJ web site.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Citation Tools
Estimating the number needed to vaccinate to prevent diseases and death related to human papillomavirus infection
Marc Brisson, Nicolas Van de Velde, Philippe De Wals, Marie-Claude Boily
CMAJ Aug 2007, 177 (5) 464-468; DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.061709

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
‍ Request Permissions
Share
Estimating the number needed to vaccinate to prevent diseases and death related to human papillomavirus infection
Marc Brisson, Nicolas Van de Velde, Philippe De Wals, Marie-Claude Boily
CMAJ Aug 2007, 177 (5) 464-468; DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.061709
Digg logo Reddit logo Twitter logo Facebook logo Google logo Mendeley logo
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like

Jump to section

  • Article
    • Abstract
    • Methods
    • Results
    • Interpretation
    • Footnotes
    • REFERENCES
  • Figures & Tables
  • Related Content
  • Responses
  • Metrics
  • PDF

Related Articles

  • Highlights of this issue
  • Dans ce numéro
  • Human papillomavirus vaccines launch a new era in cervical cancer prevention
  • Patient information about HPV and the HPV vaccine
  • Prophylactic vaccination against human papillomavirus infection and disease in women: a systematic review of randomized controlled trials
  • Feasibility of self-collection of specimens for human papillomavirus testing in hard-to-reach women
  • Human papillomavirus, vaccines and women's health: questions and cautions
  • PubMed
  • Google Scholar

Cited By...

  • Childhood Immunization: When Physicians and Parents Disagree
  • What about the boys?
  • Approuvez-vous les 300 M $ pour la vaccination contre le VPH?: OUI
  • Do you approve of spending $300 million on HPV vaccination?: YES
  • Google Scholar

More in this TOC Section

  • Booster vaccination with inactivated whole-virus or mRNA vaccines and COVID-19–related deaths among people with multimorbidity: a cohort study
  • Association between virtual primary care and emergency department use during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Canada
  • Survival and health care costs after inpatient elective surgery: comparison of patients with and without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Show more Research

Similar Articles

Collections

  • Topics
    • Drugs: immunologic
    • Sexually transmitted infections
    • Vaccination

 

View Latest Classified Ads

Content

  • Current issue
  • Past issues
  • Collections
  • Sections
  • Blog
  • Podcasts
  • Alerts
  • RSS
  • Early releases

Information for

  • Advertisers
  • Authors
  • Reviewers
  • CMA Members
  • CPD credits
  • Media
  • Reprint requests
  • Subscribers

About

  • General Information
  • Journal staff
  • Editorial Board
  • Advisory Panels
  • Governance Council
  • Journal Oversight
  • Careers
  • Contact
  • Copyright and Permissions
  • Accessibiity
  • CMA Civility Standards
CMAJ Group

Copyright 2023, CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors. All rights reserved. ISSN 1488-2329 (e) 0820-3946 (p)

All editorial matter in CMAJ represents the opinions of the authors and not necessarily those of the Canadian Medical Association or its subsidiaries.

To receive any of these resources in an accessible format, please contact us at CMAJ Group, 500-1410 Blair Towers Place, Ottawa ON, K1J 9B9; p: 1-888-855-2555; e: cmajgroup@cmaj.ca

Powered by HighWire