Skip to main content

Main menu

  • Home
  • Content
    • Current issue
    • Past issues
    • Early releases
    • Collections
    • Sections
    • Blog
    • Infographics & illustrations
    • Podcasts
    • COVID-19 articles
    • Obituary notices
  • Authors & Reviewers
    • Overview for authors
    • Submission guidelines
    • Submit a manuscript
    • Forms
    • Editorial process
    • Editorial policies
    • Peer review process
    • Publication fees
    • Reprint requests
    • Open access
    • Patient engagement
  • Physicians & Subscribers
    • Benefits for Canadian physicians
    • CPD Credits for CMA Members
    • Subscribe to CMAJ Print
    • Subscription prices
    • Obituary notices
  • Alerts
    • Email alerts
    • RSS
  • JAMC
    • À propos
    • Numéro en cours
    • Archives
    • Sections
    • Abonnement
    • Alertes
    • Trousse média 2023
    • Avis de décès
  • CMAJ JOURNALS
    • CMAJ Open
    • CJS
    • JAMC
    • JPN

User menu

Search

  • Advanced search
CMAJ
  • CMAJ JOURNALS
    • CMAJ Open
    • CJS
    • JAMC
    • JPN
CMAJ

Advanced Search

  • Home
  • Content
    • Current issue
    • Past issues
    • Early releases
    • Collections
    • Sections
    • Blog
    • Infographics & illustrations
    • Podcasts
    • COVID-19 articles
    • Obituary notices
  • Authors & Reviewers
    • Overview for authors
    • Submission guidelines
    • Submit a manuscript
    • Forms
    • Editorial process
    • Editorial policies
    • Peer review process
    • Publication fees
    • Reprint requests
    • Open access
    • Patient engagement
  • Physicians & Subscribers
    • Benefits for Canadian physicians
    • CPD Credits for CMA Members
    • Subscribe to CMAJ Print
    • Subscription prices
    • Obituary notices
  • Alerts
    • Email alerts
    • RSS
  • JAMC
    • À propos
    • Numéro en cours
    • Archives
    • Sections
    • Abonnement
    • Alertes
    • Trousse média 2023
    • Avis de décès
  • Visit CMAJ on Facebook
  • Follow CMAJ on Twitter
  • Follow CMAJ on Pinterest
  • Follow CMAJ on Youtube
  • Follow CMAJ on Instagram
Research Update

Monitoring measles key to predicting epidemics

David Helwig
CMAJ May 16, 2000 162 (10) 1474-1474-a;
David Helwig
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • Article
  • Responses
  • Metrics
  • PDF
Loading

The dramatic changes in epidemic patterns that occur in large cities can be predicted using a remarkably simple mathematical model, says David Earn, a professor of applied mathematics at McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont. (Science 2000;287:667-70).

After studying 20th-century measles epidemics in London, Liverpool, New York and Baltimore, Earn and collaborators from Cambridge University and the University of Florida concluded that changes in epidemic patterns previously thought to be "chaotic" or "noise-driven," in the mathematical sense, could be predicted using just birth and vaccination data.

"Measles epidemics range from similar outbreaks every year [annual epidemics], to large or small outbreaks in alternate years [biennial epidemics], to very irregular outbreaks of varying size [irregular epidemics]," Earn says. "In some places there are also records of 3-year cycles."

During the past century, epidemic patterns have changed noticeably. For example, some annual epidemics have shifted to biennial, and biennial epidemics have become irregular.

Earn believes that his paper is the first to indicate the influence of changing birth rates in such transitions.

"The research reported in the current paper allows us to explain transitions in epidemic patterns that have occurred in the past, and to predict transitions in the future. These transitions were not previously thought to be predictable. Since we have revealed a certain type of predictability about the epidemic patterns, we have renewed hope that it may be possible to design better vaccination strategies - strategies that are more likely to lead to eradication of diseases such as measles," Earn says. The new mathematical model is applicable to other diseases with short latency and infectious periods, he told CMAJ. "The approach could be used for diseases such as mumps, rubella, chickenpox and whooping cough. It would not apply to influenza or HIV."

However, Earn's elegant model is by no means the last word on the subject, says Sir Robert May, chief scientific adviser to the UK government, in a commentary in the same issue of Science.

"Much relevant work remains to be done in teasing apart the social, genetic, age-related, and other complications that are smoothed out in the usual mass-action assumption," May says.

PreviousNext
Back to top

In this issue

CMAJ
Vol. 162, Issue 10
16 May 2000
  • Table of Contents
  • Index by author

Article tools

Respond to this article
Print
Download PDF
Article Alerts
To sign up for email alerts or to access your current email alerts, enter your email address below:
Email Article

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word on CMAJ.

NOTE: We only request your email address so that the person you are recommending the page to knows that you wanted them to see it, and that it is not junk mail. We do not capture any email address.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
Monitoring measles key to predicting epidemics
(Your Name) has sent you a message from CMAJ
(Your Name) thought you would like to see the CMAJ web site.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Citation Tools
Monitoring measles key to predicting epidemics
David Helwig
CMAJ May 2000, 162 (10) 1474-1474-a;

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
‍ Request Permissions
Share
Monitoring measles key to predicting epidemics
David Helwig
CMAJ May 2000, 162 (10) 1474-1474-a;
Digg logo Reddit logo Twitter logo Facebook logo Google logo Mendeley logo
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like

Jump to section

  • Article
  • Responses
  • Metrics
  • PDF

Related Articles

  • No related articles found.
  • Google Scholar

Cited By...

  • No citing articles found.
  • Google Scholar

More in this TOC Section

  • Xenotransplantation survival
  • Is cloning the fountain of youth?
  • Death and tax brackets: link between income inequality and mortality holds true in US, but not in Canada
Show more Research Update

Similar Articles

Collections

  • Topics
    • Epidemiology & epidemiological methods
    • Gastroenterology
    • Infectious diseases
    • Vaccination

 

View Latest Classified Ads

Content

  • Current issue
  • Past issues
  • Collections
  • Sections
  • Blog
  • Podcasts
  • Alerts
  • RSS
  • Early releases

Information for

  • Advertisers
  • Authors
  • Reviewers
  • CMA Members
  • CPD credits
  • Media
  • Reprint requests
  • Subscribers

About

  • General Information
  • Journal staff
  • Editorial Board
  • Advisory Panels
  • Governance Council
  • Journal Oversight
  • Careers
  • Contact
  • Copyright and Permissions
CMAJ Group

Copyright 2023, CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors. All rights reserved. ISSN 1488-2329 (e) 0820-3946 (p)

All editorial matter in CMAJ represents the opinions of the authors and not necessarily those of the Canadian Medical Association or its subsidiaries.

To receive any of these resources in an accessible format, please contact us at CMAJ Group, 500-1410 Blair Towers Place, Ottawa ON, K1J 9B9; p: 1-888-855-2555; e: cmajgroup@cmaj.ca

CMA Civility, Accessibility, Privacy

 

Powered by HighWire