Alimentary tract
Gastric cancer after positive screening faecal occult blood testing and negative assessment

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Abstract

Background

Gastric cancer may be suspected with otherwise unexplained positive faecal occult blood testing.

Aims

To assess the frequency of gastric cancer following positive faecal occult blood testing and negative colonoscopy.

Subjects

Age 40–74 cohort at first screening (1985–2001) with (a) faecal occult blood testing− (83,489), (b) faecal occult blood testing +/colonoscopy+ (2025), or faecal occult blood testing+/colonoscopy− (3555).

Methods

Gastric cancer incidence in faecal occult blood testing subsets, compared with expected standardized incidence rates.

Results

Gastric cancer risk was increased (standardized incidence rate = 146.7; 95% confidence interval: 105.8–203.4) in faecal occult blood testing+/colonoscopy− subjects. A four-fold excess incidence occurred during first year (observed cases = 10, standardized incidence rate = 408.3; 95% confidence interval: 219.7–758.8), irrespective of faecal occult blood testing type (guaiac, immunological). No excess risk occurred in faecal occult blood testing− (observed cases = 53, standardized incidence rate = 91.2; 95% confidence interval: 84.1–98.8) or in faecal occult blood testing+/colonoscopy+ subjects (observed cases = 2, standardized incidence rate = 101.9; 95% confidence interval: 25.5–407.4). Assuming a 100% 3-year study sensitivity for gastric cancer, faecal occult blood testing positive predictive value would be 0.4% (40–74 years) or 0.7% (≥60 years) in faecal occult blood testing+/colonoscopy− subjects.

Conclusions

Data suggest an association of faecal occult blood testing+/colonoscopy− and excess gastric cancer incidence in the following year. Due to low faecal occult blood testing+ positive predictive value, routine upper digestive tract endoscopy in these subjects is questionable.

Introduction

Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC), with faecal occult blood testing (FOBT) has been shown to be effective in reducing mortality from CRC [1], [2], [3], [4]. Although the positive predictive value (PPV) of immunochemical FOBT for colorectal neoplasm (cancer or adenoma) may be as high as 37% [5], no lesion is found in a substantial proportion of FOBT+ subjects. As FOBT+ might be caused by upper digestive tract bleeding (gastric cancer (GC) or other disease, such as esophageal cancer, ulcerative esophagitis, and gastric and duodenal ulcer), it may be argued whether this tract should be investigated in FOBT+ subjects with negative assessment of the colon.

A screening programme for CRC is ongoing since 1980s in Florence District. Detailed features of the programme have been already reported [5]. All residents aged 50–70 years are invited to undergo FOBT every other year. FOBT+ subjects are assessed by total colonoscopy, with double-contrast enema (DCE) being performed when colonoscopy is incomplete or refused [6]. Classic guaiac FOBT was employed until 1995 and was thereafter replaced by immunochemical FOBT (reversed passive haemagglutination until 2000, latex agglutination thereafter) [7], [8]. The effectiveness of the programme in reducing CRC mortality has been assessed by means of a case-control study [9].

The aim of the present study was to assess the frequency of GC in FOBT+ subjects with negative diagnostic assessment (henceforth referred to as DA−), and to evaluate whether it might be worthwhile to screen these subjects by upper digestive tract endoscopy.

Section snippets

Materials and methods

All subjects at their first screening visit during 1985–2001 were identified in our screening database. Subjects (a) aged <40 or >74 years, or (b) FOBT+ and assessed only by DCE, or (c) with GC detected before FOBT date (five cases) were excluded. The remaining cases were eligible for the study. FOBT+/DA− subjects were then compared with FOBT− and with FOBT+/DA+ subjects.

The number of GC expected in the study cohort was calculated by applying GC incidence rates (provided by the Tuscany Cancer

Results

Between January 1985 and December 2001, 5580 FOBT+ subjects underwent diagnostic assessment. Colonoscopy was complete in 3428 subjects (62.4%) and incomplete in 2075 (37.2%). For 77 subjects (0.1%) information on colonoscopy was missing. Incomplete colonoscopy was supplemented by DCE in 1699 cases (81.9%). It is worth noting that a substantial increase in colonoscopy completeness was observed over time: 37.3% (288/773), 61.1% (2093/3423) and 80.1% (1047/1307) during 1985–1990, 1991–1996 or

Discussion

The present study is based on a relatively large FOBT screening series, followed up by cancer registry, and thus allowing a reliable estimate of FOBT+ PPV for GC. The high rate of incomplete colonoscopy in the first period of the study might be of concern, as it might suggest a higher probability of false negative diagnostic assessment. This figure is probably overestimated as in the first period of the study missing information on the upper limit reached by colonoscopy was assumed as

Conflict of interest statement

None declared.

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