Sensitivity, specificity and related analyses of M0, M1 and M2 to predict the risk of sepsis in the development and external validation data sets at selected eNEWS thresholds
| NEWS threshold | Model | Sensitivity, % (95% CI) | Specificity, % (95% CI) | Positive predictive value (95% CI) | Negative predictive value (95% CI) | Positive likelihood ratio (95% CI) | Negative likelihood ratio (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development data set, YH | |||||||
| ≥ 4 (equivalent predicted probability: YH = 0.051; NH = 0.11) | M0 | 55.95 (53.48–58.41) | 74.91 (74.45–75.37) | 9.42 (8.84–10.03) | 97.33 (97.13–97.52) | 2.23 (2.13–2.34) | 0.59 (0.56–0.62) |
| M1 | 60.96 (58.52–63.37) | 75.53 (75.07–75.98) | 10.41 (9.8–11.05) | 97.65 (97.46–97.83) | 2.49 (2.39–2.6) | 0.52 (0.49–0.55) | |
| M2 | 63.22 (60.80–65.59) | 75.55 (75.1–76.01) | 10.77 (10.15–11.41) | 97.78 (97.59–97.95) | 2.59 (2.48–2.7) | 0.49 (0.46–0.52) | |
| ≥ 5 (equivalent predicted probability: YH = 0.063; NH = 0.138) | M0 | 47.24 (44.77–49.73) | 82.94 (82.54–83.34) | 11.44 (10.68–12.23) | 97.12 (96.92–97.31) | 2.77 (2.62–2.93) | 0.64 (0.61–0.67) |
| M1 | 50.56 (48.08–53.05) | 83.09 (82.69–83.49) | 12.24 (11.46–13.06) | 97.30 (97.11–97.48) | 2.99 (2.83–3.16) | 0.59 (0.57–0.63) | |
| M2 | 52.69 (50.21–55.17) | 82.77 (82.37–83.17) | 12.49 (11.71–13.3) | 97.40 (97.21–97.58) | 3.06 (2.9–3.22) | 0.57 (0.54–0.60) | |
| ≥ 6 (equivalent predicted probability: YH = 0.079; NH = 0.169) | M0 | 39.22 (36.82–41.67) | 88.1 (87.75–88.44) | 13.33 (12.37–14.33) | 96.88 (96.68–97.07) | 3.30 (3.08–3.53) | 0.69 (0.66–0.72) |
| M1 | 40.23 (37.81–42.68) | 88.22 (87.87–88.56) | 13.74 (12.77–14.76) | 96.94 (96.74–97.12) | 3.41 (3.20–3.65) | 0.68 (0.65–0.71) | |
| M2 | 42.04 (39.61–44.51) | 88.13 (87.78–88.47) | 14.18 (13.2–15.21) | 97.02 (96.83–97.21) | 3.54 (3.32–3.78) | 0.66 (0.63–0.69) | |
| External validation data set, NH | |||||||
| ≥ 4 (equivalent predicted probability: YH = 0.051; NH = 0.11 | M0 | 48.58 (46.77–50.39) | 81.29 (80.85–81.71) | 19.39 (18.50–20.31) | 94.46 (94.18–94.73) | 2.60 (2.49–2.71) | 0.63 (0.61–0.66) |
| M1 | 57.09 (55.29–58.88) | 79.77 (79.32–80.2) | 20.73 (19.86–21.63) | 95.25 (94.99–95.5) | 2.82 (2.72–2.93) | 0.54 (0.52–0.56) | |
| M2 | 59.50 (57.72–61.27) | 79.38 (78.94–79.82) | 21.11 (20.24–22.00) | 95.48 (95.23–95.73) | 2.89 (2.78–2.99) | 0.51 (0.49–0.53) | |
| ≥ 5 (equivalent predicted probability: YH = 0.063; NH = 0.138) | M0 | 37.91 (36.17–39.68) | 88.07 (87.71–88.42) | 22.75 (21.59–23.94) | 93.87 (93.59–94.13) | 3.18 (3.01–3.36) | 0.70 (0.69–0.73) |
| M1 | 43.35 (41.56–45.15) | 86.96 (86.58–87.32) | 23.55 (22.43–24.70) | 94.30 (94.03–94.57) | 3.32 (3.16–3.49) | 0.65 (0.63–0.67) | |
| M2 | 48.07 (46.27–49.88) | 86.05 (85.67–86.43) | 24.21 (23.12–25.32) | 94.70 (94.44–94.96) | 3.45 (3.29–3.61) | 0.60 (0.58–0.62) | |
| ≥ 6 (equivalent predicted probability: YH = 0.079; NH = 0.169) | M0 | 27.49 (25.89–29.13) | 92.65 (92.36–92.93) | 25.74 (24.23–27.29) | 93.24 (92.95–93.51) | 3.74 (3.49–4.01) | 0.78 (0.77–0.80) |
| M1 | 31.38 (29.71–33.08) | 91.91 (91.61–92.21) | 26.46 (25.01–27.94) | 93.53 (93.25–93.80) | 3.88 (3.64–4.14) | 0.75 (0.73–0.77) | |
| M2 | 35.67 (33.95–37.42) | 90.80 (90.48–91.11) | 26.44 (25.08–27.83) | 93.84 (93.56–94.1) | 3.88 (3.65–4.11) | 0.71 (0.69–0.73) | |
Note: CI = confidence interval, eNEWS = electronic National Early Warning Score, N+ = the number of positive cases, NH = NLAG Hospitals, NLAG = Northern Lincolnshire and Goole NHS Foundation Trust, YH = York Hospital.