Treatment-related variables used in the model
| Variable | Parameter estimate (range) | Source or reference no. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of receiving treatment, by fibrosis stage and viral genotype | |||
| Fibrosis stage 0 | |||
| Genotype 1 | 0.37 | (0.28–0.46) | TWH medical records |
| Genotype 2 or 3 | 0.47 | (0.35–0.59) | TWH medical records |
| Genotype 4, 5 or 6 | 0.5 | (0.38–0.63) | TWH medical records |
| Fibrosis stage 1 | |||
| Genotype 1 | 0.5 | (0.38–0.63) | TWH medical records |
| Genotype 2 or 3 | 0.66 | (0.50–0.83) | TWH medical records |
| Genotype 4, 5 or 6 | 0.5 | (0.38–0.63) | TWH medical records |
| Fibrosis stage 2 | |||
| Genotype 1 | 0.5 | (0.38–0.63) | TWH medical records |
| Genotype 2 or 3 | 0.66 | (0.50–0.83) | TWH medical records |
| Genotype 4, 5 or 6 | 0.5 | (0.38–0.63) | TWH medical records |
| Fibrosis stage 3 | |||
| Genotype 1 | 0.55 | (0.41–0.69) | TWH medical records |
| Genotype 2 or 3 | 0.68 | (0.51–0.85) | TWH medical records |
| Genotype 4, 5 or 6 | 0.5 | (0.38–0.63) | TWH medical records |
| Fibrosis stage 4 | |||
| Genotype 1 | 0.63 | (0.47–0.79) | TWH medical records |
| Genotype 2 or 3 | 0.62 | (0.47–0.78) | TWH medical records |
| Genotype 4, 5 or 6 | 0.61 | (0.46–0.76) | TWH medical records |
| Variables for treatment-naive cohort | |||
| Simeprevir-based combination therapy for genotype 1 | |||
| Sustained virologic response rate | |||
| Fibrosis stage 0–2 | 0.84 | (0.81–0.87) | 8,9 |
| Fibrosis stage 3 or 4 | 0.68 | (0.64–0.72) | 8,9 |
| Discontinuation rate | 0.156 | (0.117–0.195) | 8,9 |
| Virologic response rate* | 0.859 | (0.64–1.00) | 8,9 |
| Adverse events | |||
| Anemia | 0.21 | (0.18–0.24) | 8,9 |
| Depression | 0.12 | (0.06–0.21) | 8,9 |
| Pruritus | 0.26 | (0.21–0.32) | 8,9 |
| Rash | 0.29 | (0.25–0.32) | 8,9 |
| ABT-450–based combination therapy for genotype 1 | |||
| Sustained virologic response rate | |||
| Fibrosis stage 0–3 | 0.96 | (0.945–0.979) | 11 |
| Fibrosis stage 4 | 0.94 | (0.892–0.991) | 10 |
| Discontinuation rate | |||
| Fibrosis stage 0–3 | 0.01 | (0.008–0.013) | 11 |
| Fibrosis stage 4 | 0.02 | (0.02–0.03) | 10 |
| Adverse events | |||
| Anemia | 0.08 | (0.06–0.10) | 10 |
| Depression | 0.01 | (0.01–0.01) | 10 |
| Pruritus | 0.11 | (0.08–0.14) | 10 |
| Rash | 0.18 | (0.14–0.23) | 10 |
| Pegylated interferon + ribavirin therapy | |||
| Genotype 1 | |||
| Sustained virologic response rate† | |||
| Fibrosis stage 0–2 | 0.49 | (0.44–0.53) | 18–31 |
| Fibrosis stage 3 or 4 | 0.37 | (0.30–0.43) | 18–31 |
| Discontinuation rate† | 0.38 | (0.34–0.42) | 18–31 |
| Adverse events | |||
| Anemia | 0.22 | (0.19–0.26) | 20–30 |
| Depression | 0.22 | (0.19–0.26) | 20–30 |
| Pruritus | 0.26 | (0.22–0.30) | 20–30 |
| Rash | 0.25 | (0.22–0.29) | 20–30 |
| Genotype 2 or 3 | |||
| Sustained virologic response rate‡ | 0.77 | (0.71–0.82) | 32–38 |
| Discontinuation rate‡ | 0.09 | (0.06–0.13) | 32–38 |
| Adverse events | |||
| Anemia | 0.12 | (0.03–0.39) | 32,34,36,38 |
| Depression | 0.19 | (0.12–0.28) | 32,34,36,38 |
| Pruritus | 0.24 | (0.14–0.39) | 32,34,36,38 |
| Rash | 0.24 | (0.14–0.39) | 32,34,36,38 |
| Genotype 4, 5 or 6§ | |||
| Sustained virologic response rate† | 0.65 | (0.57–0.71) | 39–41 |
| Discontinuation rate† | 0.38 | (0.34–0.42) | 20–30 |
| Adverse events | |||
| Anemia | 0.22 | (0.19–0.26) | 20–30 |
| Depression | 0.22 | (0.19–0.26) | 20–30 |
| Pruritus | 0.26 | (0.22–0.30) | 20–30 |
| Rash | 0.25 | (0.22–0.29) | 20–30 |
| Sofosbuvir-based combination therapy | |||
| Genotype 2 | |||
| Sustained virologic response rate | |||
| Fibrosis stage 0–3 | 0.967 | (0.828–0.999) | 7 |
| Fibrosis stage 4 | 1 | (0.158–1.000) | 7 |
| Discontinuation rate | 0 | (0.00–0.02) | 7 |
| Adverse events | |||
| Anemia | 0.08 | (0.06–0.10) | 12 |
| Depression | 0.055 | (0.04125–0.06875) | 12 |
| Pruritus | 0.07 | (0.0525–0.0875) | 12 |
| Rash | 0.09 | (0.0675–0.1125) | 12 |
| Genotype 3 | |||
| Sustained virologic response rate | |||
| Fibrosis stage 0–3 | 0.946 | (0.863–0.976) | 7 |
| Fibrosis stage 4 | 0.923 | (0.640–0.998) | 7 |
| Discontinuation rate | 0.016 | (0.012–0.020) | 7 |
| Adverse events | |||
| Anemia | 0.08 | (0.06–0.10) | 12 |
| Depression | 0.055 | (0.04125–0.06875) | 12 |
| Pruritus | 0.09 | (0.0675–0.1125) | 7 |
| Rash | 0.27 | (0.2025–0.3375) | 12 |