CMAJ • March 11, 2008; 178 (6). doi:10.1503/cmaj.081325.
© 2008 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors
All editorial matter in CMAJ represents the opinions of the authors and not necessarily those of the Canadian Medical Association.
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Climate change and infectious diseases in North America: the road ahead

Amy Greer, PhD, Victoria Ng, BS and David Fisman, MD MPH

From the Research Institute of The Hospital for Sick Children (Greer, Ng, Fisman), Toronto, Ont.; the Ontario Central Public Health Laboratory (Fisman), Toronto, Ont.; and The Australian National University (Ng), Canberra, Australia


Figure 119
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  		Figure 1: Trends in mean global temperatures since the mid-19th century. Coloured lines represent the linear trends over various time periods. Shorter (more recent time periods) lines have steeper slopes, indicating an accelerating warming trend for the planet. Reproduced, with permission, from reference 2. Copyright 2007 Cambridge University Press.

 

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  		Table 1.

 

Figure 219
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  		Figure 2: Upper temperature limits for Ixodes scapularis establishment in Canada, based on mathematical models. The graph shows the current upper geographic limits and projected limits for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, assuming continuous population growth, regionally oriented economic development and no reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Upper and lower model-derived confidence limits are mapped as coloured lines around the black lines. Modified, with permission, from Elsevier (Int J Parasitol 2006;36: 63–70).13

 

Figure 319
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  		Figure 3: Association between precipitation and water-borne disease outbreaks. The graph shows the relation between unusually heavy rainfall and the number of confirmed cases of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli infection that occurred during a massive enteric disease outbreak in Walkerton, Ontario, in May 2000. The incubation period for verotoxigenic E. coli is usually 3–4 days, which is consistent with the lag between extreme precipitation events and surges in the number of cases. The figure is based on data published by Auld et al36 and data published in Report of the Walkerton Inquiry: the events of May 2000 and related issues. Part one.50

 

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  		Table 2.