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Fig. 3: Nomogram version of Bayes' Theorem. Starting with a patient in whom the diagnosis is uncertain after clinical evaluation (e.g., pretest probability of 50%), a likelihood ratio of 10 or greater for a positive test result is required to rule in disease with reasonable certainty (i.e., post-test probability of 90% or greater), whereas a likelihood ratio of 0.10 or smaller for a negative test result is required to rule out disease with reasonable certainty (i.e., post-test probability of 10% or lower). Adapted, with permission, from Fagan TJ. Nomogram for Bayes' formula. N Engl J Med 1975;293:257. Copyright © 1975 Massachusetts Medical Society. All rights reserved.
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